The Kairos signal
Five public market checks — credit spreads, the VIX curve, breadth, index trend, tech versus utilities — scored at 3:50 PM ET every trading day. Healthy: leveraged Nasdaq exposure. Fragile: short-term T-bills.
- Public market checks, scored together
- 5
- PM ET, every trading day
- 3:50
- Trades a year in the out-of-sample record
- ~11
An exit rule and a re-entry rule, both written before the market forces either one.
- 01
Reads five public measures
Credit spreads, the VIX term structure, market breadth, index momentum, and tech against utilities, scored once a day near the close. - 02
Two states, no middle ground
Healthy: 83% TQQQ, roughly 2.5× effective Nasdaq exposure. Fragile: 100% short-term U.S. Treasury bills. - 03
The way back in is written too
When the checks read healthy again, the rule buys back in. It doesn’t wait for the news to improve or for anyone to feel better.
Out-of-sample 2020–2026: 40.6% annualized, −24.5% worst drop (model, not audited).
The method
You sold in 2022. Why didn’t you buy back in 2023?
The hardest trade isn’t exiting a crash. It’s returning to a market that feels dangerous. Here is the written rule that forces the second call—and the years it will cost you.
7 min read
The method
The math that wiped out TQQQ holders in 2022—and the exit rule our model ran instead
Leverage didn’t kill them. Holding it through the chop did. Here is the exact arithmetic of volatility decay, and the 3:50 PM ET switch that changes the outcome.
8 min read
The record
The $15,000 year: what our rules cost in 2025, and why we kept them
In 2022 the rules stepped aside and finished up 8%. In 2025 the same rules made 3% while SPY made about 18%. Here is the exact cost of that caution, and why you should accept it before you invest a dollar.
7 min read
The rest of the lineup
- Kairos Select~40 top-ranked U.S. stocks. Re-ranked weekly. Rebalanced only when drift hits 3%. Always long.
- Kairos EnhancedThe Select portfolio plus a 15% sleeve that moves daily between leveraged Nasdaq and T-bills.
- Kairos FuturesNQ/MNQ on a 15-minute chart. Nothing held overnight. Purely mechanical entries and stops.
- How it worksFive checks at 3:50 PM ET
The exit is already written. So is the way back in.
Thirty minutes, books open. Bring your hardest question — the record, the custody, the bad year. Your money stays in your brokerage the whole time.
12 months to change your mind · no lock-up · no obligation
Important information
The Kairos signal record is hypothetical out-of-sample model performance, 2020–2026: not audited, not live, not client accounts. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nobody can guarantee a return, and Kairos does not.