Your money
Why your account will sit idle for weeks (and why that’s good)
Few trades, orders at 3:50 PM ET, long stretches of T-bills, and exactly how to measure a drop in your own statement without guessing.
You log in expecting to see activity. Instead, you see nothing.
For weeks, maybe months, the balance sits there. The news is screaming about inflation, or war, or a Fed pivot. Your friends are talking about their latest winner. But your account? Static.
This triggers a specific anxiety for anyone who has managed their own money before: Is it broken? Did I forget to turn it on? Am I missing out?
With most advisors or apps, silence means neglect. With Kairos, silence is the strategy.
This article explains exactly what “normal” looks like in a Kairos-run account, so the next time you log in and see zero new trades, you know the system is doing exactly what you paid it to do: waiting.
The 3:50 PM ET Rule
Many traders react to headlines at 10:00 AM. Many algorithms react to millisecond spikes. Kairos does neither.
The software runs five specific market checks every single trading day at 3:50 PM ET:
- Credit spreads
- VIX term structure
- Market breadth
- Index momentum
- Technology sector vs. Utilities sector
If the score reads healthy, the account holds Nasdaq exposure. If it reads fragile, it moves to T-bills. If the score hasn’t changed since yesterday, no order is sent.
In the out-of-sample model record (2020–2026), this resulted in approximately 11 trades per year. That is less than once a month. Some months, there are zero trades.
When a trade does occur, it happens near the close. You will not see a transaction timestamped at noon because a CPI report surprised the market. The system ignores the intraday noise that causes most investors to panic-sell or chase rallies.
Note on Brokerage Views: Kairos runs inside your brokerage account. We never take custody. The trade confirmations, emails, and monthly statements come from your brokerage, not from us. Their interface determines how you see the data; our rules determine what data appears.
The Only Two Positions You Will See
When the signal fires, your account shifts between two distinct states. There is no third option.
1. Healthy The account holds roughly 83% in TQQQ (a leveraged Nasdaq-100 ETF). This provides approximately 2.5x the daily move of the Nasdaq. On your screen, this looks like a single fund position that swings harder than the broader market—up and down.
2. Fragile The account exits equities entirely and parks in short-term U.S. Treasury bills (in the model record, represented by SHV). On your screen, this looks like a cash-equivalent position that barely moves day-to-day, accruing small amounts of interest.
In the model record, the system was in the market on 59% of days. The other 41% of the time, it sat in T-bills.
If you run Kairos Enhanced, this switch only affects a 15% sleeve of your portfolio, with the rest held in a diversified stock book (Kairos Select). Select runs on its own rhythm (re-ranked weekly, rebalanced when holdings drift 3%), while the regime signal stays slow.
The Cost of Discipline: When Silence Hurts
Here is the part most sales pages leave out.
Rules-based systems do not catch every dollar. They follow a specific set of instructions, and sometimes the market behaves in a way those instructions ignore.
In 2025, SPY returned roughly 18%. The model returned +3%. The source deck calls the year a “steady no-pullback grind,” and says the same defenses that hurt in 2025 delivered +8% in 2022.
You watched the market go up without you. That feels terrible.
But consider the alternative. In 2022, when SPY fell about 18% and bonds fell with it, the model returned +8%. In 2020, it captured +72% while the S&P did +18%.
You are buying a process, not a guarantee of winning every year. The price of stepping aside in 2022 is accepting that you might lag during a smooth, low-volatility rally like 2025. If you cannot stomach seeing green arrows everywhere else while your account lags, this system is not for you.
What a “Bad” Month Actually Looks Like
Every system loses money sometimes. It is vital you recognize the difference between a malfunction and the known risks of the strategy.
The Whipsaw This happens when the market chops sideways. The checks flash “Fragile,” so you sell into T-bills. The market immediately rips higher. You buy back in. The market immediately drops. You sell again. You lose on the spread twice in a row. In the model record, 72% of trades were winners. That means 28% were losers. Whipsaws are the cost of doing business in a tactical strategy.
The Lag The market crashes 5% in a single day. The checks, read once a day near the close, haven’t turned fragile yet. You take the hit. A few days later, the signal flips, and you move to T-bills. Was it too late? Maybe. Was it better than holding through a 30% bear market? The record suggests yes (worst model drawdown -24.5% vs SPY -33.7%), but in the moment, it feels like a failure.
These scenarios are not bugs. They are in the math. The model record is hypothetical, not audited live performance, and future drawdowns could exceed the historical -24.5%.
How to Read Your Own Drawdown
Do not wait for us to tell you how you performed. Your brokerage statement holds the truth.
To calculate your peak-to-trough drop (drawdown):
- Identify the highest account value reached (Peak).
- Identify the lowest value reached after that peak, before recovering (Trough).
- Subtract Trough from Peak, then divide by Peak.
Example: Peak $250,000 → Trough $200,000. ($50,000 / $250,000) = 20% drawdown.
Warning: Deposits and withdrawals distort this math. Pulling $20,000 out makes it look like a loss. Adding cash hides a loss. Use your brokerage’s “Time-Weighted Return” or “Performance” view if available, which adjusts for cash flows. Also, monthly statements only show the balance on one day; the real low might have happened mid-month. Check daily balances if you want precision.
Know your number beforehand. Can you handle a $50,000 drop on a $250,000 slice? If the answer is “no,” adjust your allocation before turning the system on, not during the drop.
The Guarantee Is About Process, Not Profits
Nobody can guarantee a return. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying.
However, we stand behind the mechanism. If you are not satisfied inside 12 months, the fee you paid to Kairos is refunded in full. This refunds the fee, not market losses. It is not a promise that the market will cooperate.
There are no lock-ups. No surrender periods. You can switch the software off the same day you turn it on. The orders route through TradersPost as percentage-based instructions, and the assets never leave your account.
The Short Version
- Expect silence. The signal trades ~11 times a year, exclusively near the 3:50 PM ET close. Long periods of inactivity mean the rules said “stay put.”
- Two states only. You will see either leveraged Nasdaq exposure (healthy) or short-term T-bills (fragile). Nothing else.
- Verify via your broker. All confirmations and statements come from your brokerage firm. Kairos never touches your funds.
- Accept the trade-offs. The system will miss some rallies (like 2025) and will suffer whipsaws in choppy markets. This is documented in the hypothetical out-of-sample record.
- Measure correctly. Calculate drawdowns using peak-to-trough logic on your brokerage’s daily data, adjusting for your own deposits and withdrawals.
If you prefer a crystal ball to a written rulebook, stop here. If you want a mechanical process that removes the decision from your hands—even when that decision is to do nothing—review the track record or book a call to discuss if this fits your risk tolerance.
